Factors associated with police shooting mortality

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# Factors associated with police shooting mortality: A focus on race and a plea for more comprehensive data

.small[(Just published in [*PLOS ONE*](https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259024))]

[Justin Nix](https://jnix.netlify.app)  
*School of Criminology and Criminal Justice*  
*University of Nebraska Omaha*

[John Shjarback](https://www.johnshjarback.com/about-john)  
*Department of Law and Justice Studies*  
*Rowan University*

<br>
<br>
.white[American Society of Criminology: Chicago, IL]  
.white[November 17, 2021]

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# Background

- [WAPO](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/), [Fatal Encounters](www.fatalencounters.org), and [MPV](www.mappingpoliceviolence.org) have given us a better idea how often police kill people in the United States

- *Lots* of researchers have used these data to answer *lots* of research questions<sup>[1-4]</sup>

- But deaths caused by police officers are just one outcome of the behavior we're really interested in: the **use of** lethal force

- Lethal force is "physical force *capable of or likely to kill*...it does not always kill"<sup>[5]</sup>

- **Every time** police officers shoot at a person, they're using lethal force - even if they don't ultimately kill the person

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# Purpose

**To demonstrate how existing data may be misleading us**

1. Quantify nonfatal, injurious police shootings of people in four states with sufficient data

2. Examine factors associated with mortality, conditional on being shot by a police officer

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# Data

Police shooting data from four states:

Level I and II Adult Trauma Centers

- Pulled from Trauma Center Association of America [website](https://www.traumacenters.org/page/TraumaCentersMap)

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# Data

**Dependent Variable**: Fatality (1 = yes; 0 = nonfatal injury)

**Covariates**

- Race/Ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic, Other)

- Sex (Male = 1)

- Age (25 and under, 26-35, 36-45, 45 and older)

- Deadly Weapon (1 = yes)

- Trauma Center (1 = 1+ in the county)

- Metropolitan County (1 = yes)

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# Findings

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# Findings

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# Findings

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# Findings

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# Findings

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# Implications

**Recap**

- 45% of the victims in this sample **did not die**

- Conditional on being shot...

- Black and younger victims less likely to die

- Victims armed with deadly weapons ~16% more likely to die

**So what?**

- The federal government has consistently failed to compile these data

- More states should follow the lead of Texas, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine

- Researchers: Be careful about generalizing from data that only capture fatalities

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# Thank you!

## Questions?

Justin Nix  
.small[*School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Nebraska Omaha*]

## Criticisms? 😁

John Shjarback  
.small[*Department of Law and Justice Studies, Rowan University*]

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# References

[1] Nix, J., Campbell, B. A., Byers, E. H., & Alpert, G. P. (2017). A bird's eye view of civilians killed by police in 2015: Further evidence of implicit bias. *Criminology & Public Policy*, 16(1), 309-340.

[2] Edwards, F., Lee, H., & Esposito, M. (2019). Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, 116(34), 16793-16798.

[3] Schwartz, G. L., & Jahn, J. L. (2020). Mapping fatal police violence across US metropolitan areas: Overall rates and racial/ethnic inequities, 2013-2017. *PLOS ONE*, 15(6), e0229686.

[4] Bor, J., Venkataramani, A. S., Williams, D. R., & Tsai, A. C. (2018). Police killings and their spillover effects on the mental health of black Americans: A population-based, quasi-experimental study. *The Lancet*, 392(10144), 302-310.

[5] Fyfe J.J. (1978). *Shots fired: An examination of New York City police firearms discharges.* Doctoral dissertation, State University of New York at Albany. Ann Arbor, MI: University Microfilms International.

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# Supplemental Materials  
.small[Police shooting mortality rates, county-level]  
<img src="fig_s1.png" width="400px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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# Supplemental Materials  
.small[Police shooting mortality rates, county-level]  
<img src="fig_s2.png" width="550px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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# Supplemental Materials  
.small[Police shooting mortality rates, county-level]  
<img src="fig_s3.jpg" width="400px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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# Supplemental Materials  
.small[Police shooting mortality rates, county-level]  
<img src="fig_s4.jpg" width="400px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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# Supplemental Materials

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# Supplemental Materials

- Sources for Police Shooting Data

- **Florida** (2009-2014), compiled by [*Tampa Bay Times*](https://projects.tampabay.com/projects/2017/investigations/florida-police-shootings/)

- **Colorado** (2010-2019), compiled by Division of Criminal Justice, per Senate Bill 15-217 ([repealed](https://ors.colorado.gov/ors-coll-ois))

- **Texas** (2015-2019), compiled by [Texas Office of Attorney General](https://oagtx.force.com/oisreports/apex/OISReportsPage)

- **California** (2016-2019), compiled by [State Department of Justice](https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/data)